The goals have dried up - how worrying is this?

From the start of November until the end of January, City scored 81 goals in 23 games. That's just over 3.5 per game! In February, City have scored 3 goals in 5 games, less than a goal a game. The goals have dried up recently, leading to just 2 wins and a draw from the 5 games. How worrying is this? What has caused this? There are several possible reasons.

1. Regression to the mean - for 3 months City scored at a frankly ridiculous rate, at some point this rate was bound to drop. Form fluctuates up and down, and so this could be just a blip. We were above average for 3 months and then below for a month. If this is the case then the goals should return soon.
2. Opponents have worked us out - we're now well into the second half of the season. Other teams have had plenty of time to study how we play, to look at what other teams have done against us that has/hasn't worked, and so to adjust their tactics against us. For example, the game against Arsenal showed what happens when you try and meet fire with fire, but Crystal Palace showed what is possible by being defensive. Arsenal were destroyed, and Palace could easily have got something out of the game - their tactics very nearly worked. If teams are concentrating on stopping us scoring and adapt their tactics, this will make it harder to score. The key to this is that City need to adapt their own tactics. The FA Cup game against Chelsea could be a sign that we are willing to do this.
3. Injuries to key players - it's not a coincidence that our early struggles in defense coincided with a series of injuries at centre back. We've recently been missing some key players (e.g. Aguero, Nasri) who would have given us added firepower. No side, however deep their squad, is as good if multiple key players are out injured. This is especially true if the injuries are concentrated in one position. Early in the season injuries to centre backs meant Javi Garcia played out of position there, recently multiple injuries in midfield meant Demichelis played there. This usually means the team's performance will drop.
4. Loss of form of key players - the early season defensive struggles were, in part, due to Joe Harts poor form. Recently Negredo's form, for example, has been poor. This happens as form can fluctuate and usually a player can be rested and given a bit of time to get his form back. The injury to Aguero, however, has meant this can't happen.

The most likely explanation is a combination of the above. Of the above, 3 and 4 do happen. The problem is that they have both happened in the same area of the team. Usually they will be scattered  throughout the squad and so the depth of the squad can be used to cover for this. Point 1 above should come to an end, the goalscoring should fluctuate back up. The reason to worry would be point 2. If teams are finding a way to stop us then we need to make adjustments of our own. Can we do that? The rest of the season will hinge on how big a factor this is and if we can find an answer.

What a difference 12 days make!

Tonight's FA Cup game was very different from the League game just 12 days ago. Then, City were outdone tactically and physically. Tonight, there was only one team in it. For me the major difference was in midfield. While it helped being able to play a midfielder (Garcia) instead of a defender (Demichelis) in central midfield, I think the selections of Jovetic and Milner was also pivotal. In the league game, Navas and Negredo played. Both of these are excellent players but they don't do a lot to help in the centre of midfield. That's fine when we are winning the battle there, but in the League game we didn't. Milner does more work defensively than Navas, and Jovetic plays a deeper role than Negredo, meaning City had more bodies to help in the midfield battle. This meant City dominated the game.

As well as progressing to the next round, it was good to see Jovetic finally showing us what he can do. I thought he, Silva, Toure and Milner were all excellent. Hopefully, the lessons from the two games against Chelsea will be listened to when preparations for the Barcelona game are made.

Outdone tactically and physically - thoughts on the loss to Chelsea

For the second time this season, City have lost at home. Both times we have lost the tactical battle and the workrate of the opposition has caused major problems. The game against Bayern was widely regarded as the best team in the world teaching us a lesson. Last night, probably the best coach in the world did the same. A few thoughts:

• Tactically I think the key was the work rate of Chelsea's front 4 when we had the ball. Their pressing was brilliant. They picked their moments and then hunted down the ball. The result was that on many occasions our central defenders faced a wall of 3 Chelsea players when they had the ball. This cut off easy passes out and made it very difficult for us to build from the back.
• One result of the pressing from the front was that when we did get the ball forward it was through long or risky passes far more often than normal. As a result we often went forward without the fluidity we've seen, there was less control and more chaos when we had the ball.
• Another result of the pressing was that Chelsea often won the ball back higher up the pitch and with our players forward. This gave them plenty of scope for counter-attacking, something they hit us with many times.
• Plenty will be said about Demichelis playing in midfield, for me he gave a convincing impression of a central defender playing 10 yards too far forward. But it highlights a worrying lack of depth in the squad in central midfield. Behind Yaya and Fernandinho, we only have Garcia and Rodwell. Rodwell is almost permanently injured, and with Garcia and Fernandinho out injured the only options were to move Milner inside or Demichelis.
• The central midfield issue also highlights another worry - where are the academy players? This was something that I noticed at Christmas when, with Zabeleta and Micah Richards out, Clichy played at right-back against Fulham. While Chelsea may not be the game to throw a kid into, Fulham away might be. Where are the academy players to fill in?
• Chelsea deserved to win last night, and it could have been by more as they hit the post 3 times. Despite that, it's not all doom and gloom. We also created chances. On another night we'd have got something from the game.
• City, Chelsea and Arsenal are separated by 2 points. It's a 3 horse race for the title now. With Arsenal facing a very tricky next month, their 2 point lead at this stage is nothing. The title could go to any of us.