Has this season been a success or failure so far?

In late January, the media was full of talk of City winning a Quadruple, the number of goals they were scoring and how it was one of the best teams to watch in years. Now, there is talk that this season may be a failure and that the win at Hull may have saved the season. This is despite City already having won a trophy this year. While both are typical media over-reactions, there has been a change in the atmosphere around City since the end of January. What has caused this and how successful has Manual Pellegrini's first season actually been so far?

At the end of January, City were flying. In the previous 3 months they'd scored 81 goals in 23 games, and were still in all 4 competitions. Since then, just 10 goals in 9 games have been scored and they have gone out of 2 competitions. The turning point in this is fairly obvious - the game against Chelsea in the league. This defeat knocked us off course. Injuries to strikers hasn't helped but suddenly City stopped scoring and this exposed a defence which has, to put it politely, some issues.

But was the last couple of months that bad? The League Cup was won, Chelsea were defeated in the FA Cup, 7 points out of 9 have been picked up in the league since the Chelsea defeat and there was a creditable performance in defeat to Barcelona. Then there was the FA Cup. Frankly that was an embarrassing disaster. It had been coming though. Chelsea apart, we flirted with it in earlier rounds and didn't learn our lesson.

As things stand, City have won the League Cup and still have their destiny in the league in their own hands. The league is still a 4 horse race and you could make a case for all 4 to win it (Chelsea have points in the bag, City have games in hand, Liverpool still have both City and Chelsea to play at home, Arsenal have City and Chelsea in next two weeks), but for me it's wide open. So is this a successful season or not?

To answer this we need to take a step back and look at everything. Before the start of the season I thought we'd have had a good season if we:

• finished 2nd or better in the Premier League
• won a trophy
• got past the group stage of the Champions League

2 of those have been achieved and the 3rd is a definitely possible. But the 2 that have been achieved could arguably be said to have been only just achieved. Going out at the first knock-out stage in the Champions League having had a relatively easy group is the bare minimum, and the League Cup is the 4th most important trophy we can win.

Would this be enough for the owners? Not on it's own. In the statement released when Mancini was sacked and in other statements last summer, the owners and management talked of other priorities. Khaldoon Al Mubarak talked of the ambition to try and win everything, while Ferran Soriano set a realistic target of 5 trophies in 5 years. While it wasn't clear from Soriano's comments if the League Cup would be included in his target, winning a trophy in the first year is in line with this target. And City certainly tried to win everything, even the FA Cup despite the disaster (City threw everything at Wigan to try and turn that around).

Soriano also mentioned wanting to see the team progress. This is a vague target but on two fronts we can say this has been achieved. There are far fewer off the field incidents this season. The team seems a much more harmonious (or is much better at keeping it inside the dressing room). The style of play has improved. The owners have spoken of wanting to play attractive, attacking football. At least until the end of January this was certainly the case with City playing some of the best football I've ever seen from a City side.

Unfortunately there is one area where little progress has been made. The owners want players to progress from the academy to the first team. Apart from encouraging performances from Marcos Lopes in the League Cup, this just hasn't happened. The most worrying sign for me was the use of Clichy and then Boyata at right back when Zabaleta and Richards were both injured around Christmas. If you can't trust an academy player when you play Crystal Palace at home when can you? While this may not be Pellegrini's fault (if the players aren't good enough, he isn't going to play them), there is a distinct lack of progress on this.

Has this been a successful season? I would say that overall the club has moved in the right direction, even if the League title goes elsewhere. When he talked about the '5 trophies in 5 years' target, Soriano also said that the manager wouldn't be judged on trophies alone. As we know from the last couple of years a lot can happen in a single game that can make a difference between winning a trophy and not. Off and on the field, most things have moved in the right direction. And any season where a trophy is won and you are in contention for the title until very late in the season cannot be considered a failure.

That was a proper cup final

From the sea of red and white shirts on Wembley Way before the game, to the noise they made in the stadium during the game, the Sunderland fans were magnificent yesterday. Their team were very good as well. Neither deserved to be on the losing side, but then sport doesn't do deserving. You can play badly and win, or play well and lose. For Sunderland it was the latter.

City took a while to get going, both on and off the pitch. The Sunderland end was full well before kick-off, the City end filled up closer to kick-off. A consequence of how often we have each visited Wembley recently perhaps. But once the City end filled up, the noise from both ends of the stadium made for a great atmosphere and a real cup final feel.

In the first half, Sunderland were the better side, battling well and taking a (probably) deserved lead. City took a while to get going but when they did, unleashed two of the greatest cup final goals I've ever seen. At the time I thought Toure's was the better goal. But after getting home and watching the replay's I'm starting to think Nasri's may have been better. Either way, both goals would have been worthy of any final.

At 2-1 though, there was always a chance for Sunderland to get back in it. On another day the ball may have bounced more kindly for them and they would have. Then, who knows what would have happened. Overall City were just the better side, but there wasn't much in it. Both teams (and sets of supporters) were part of a proper cup final.

Finally though, I have to mention the only disappointments of the day and they all relate to problems with Wembley itself. There is always the worlds biggest queue on Wembley Way after the game, this is now expected and well managed but doesn't improve. But the queue's in the toilets are even worse. For a stadium which loudly claimed to have more toilets than any other stadium when it opened, I've no idea how they can be so bad.

Wembley also seems to have the worlds loudest PA system. It somehow drowns out 90,000 fans at times. When will they learn that allowing the fans to create the atmosphere is the best way to do it? Not trying to force an atmosphere with ridiculously loud music.

Lastly, have a look at the photo at the top of this blog. Notice all the empty seats in the Club Wembley area? That photo was taken with about 15 minutes of the game to go. This is disgracful. There were several thousand empty seats there which could have been used by fans of the two teams. The FA needs to look at the terms of the Club Wembley seats when they come up for renewal. If they aren't going to use them for a game, they should be made available for others to use.

The goals have dried up - how worrying is this?

From the start of November until the end of January, City scored 81 goals in 23 games. That's just over 3.5 per game! In February, City have scored 3 goals in 5 games, less than a goal a game. The goals have dried up recently, leading to just 2 wins and a draw from the 5 games. How worrying is this? What has caused this? There are several possible reasons.

1. Regression to the mean - for 3 months City scored at a frankly ridiculous rate, at some point this rate was bound to drop. Form fluctuates up and down, and so this could be just a blip. We were above average for 3 months and then below for a month. If this is the case then the goals should return soon.
2. Opponents have worked us out - we're now well into the second half of the season. Other teams have had plenty of time to study how we play, to look at what other teams have done against us that has/hasn't worked, and so to adjust their tactics against us. For example, the game against Arsenal showed what happens when you try and meet fire with fire, but Crystal Palace showed what is possible by being defensive. Arsenal were destroyed, and Palace could easily have got something out of the game - their tactics very nearly worked. If teams are concentrating on stopping us scoring and adapt their tactics, this will make it harder to score. The key to this is that City need to adapt their own tactics. The FA Cup game against Chelsea could be a sign that we are willing to do this.
3. Injuries to key players - it's not a coincidence that our early struggles in defense coincided with a series of injuries at centre back. We've recently been missing some key players (e.g. Aguero, Nasri) who would have given us added firepower. No side, however deep their squad, is as good if multiple key players are out injured. This is especially true if the injuries are concentrated in one position. Early in the season injuries to centre backs meant Javi Garcia played out of position there, recently multiple injuries in midfield meant Demichelis played there. This usually means the team's performance will drop.
4. Loss of form of key players - the early season defensive struggles were, in part, due to Joe Harts poor form. Recently Negredo's form, for example, has been poor. This happens as form can fluctuate and usually a player can be rested and given a bit of time to get his form back. The injury to Aguero, however, has meant this can't happen.

The most likely explanation is a combination of the above. Of the above, 3 and 4 do happen. The problem is that they have both happened in the same area of the team. Usually they will be scattered  throughout the squad and so the depth of the squad can be used to cover for this. Point 1 above should come to an end, the goalscoring should fluctuate back up. The reason to worry would be point 2. If teams are finding a way to stop us then we need to make adjustments of our own. Can we do that? The rest of the season will hinge on how big a factor this is and if we can find an answer.

What a difference 12 days make!

Tonight's FA Cup game was very different from the League game just 12 days ago. Then, City were outdone tactically and physically. Tonight, there was only one team in it. For me the major difference was in midfield. While it helped being able to play a midfielder (Garcia) instead of a defender (Demichelis) in central midfield, I think the selections of Jovetic and Milner was also pivotal. In the league game, Navas and Negredo played. Both of these are excellent players but they don't do a lot to help in the centre of midfield. That's fine when we are winning the battle there, but in the League game we didn't. Milner does more work defensively than Navas, and Jovetic plays a deeper role than Negredo, meaning City had more bodies to help in the midfield battle. This meant City dominated the game.

As well as progressing to the next round, it was good to see Jovetic finally showing us what he can do. I thought he, Silva, Toure and Milner were all excellent. Hopefully, the lessons from the two games against Chelsea will be listened to when preparations for the Barcelona game are made.

Outdone tactically and physically - thoughts on the loss to Chelsea

For the second time this season, City have lost at home. Both times we have lost the tactical battle and the workrate of the opposition has caused major problems. The game against Bayern was widely regarded as the best team in the world teaching us a lesson. Last night, probably the best coach in the world did the same. A few thoughts:

• Tactically I think the key was the work rate of Chelsea's front 4 when we had the ball. Their pressing was brilliant. They picked their moments and then hunted down the ball. The result was that on many occasions our central defenders faced a wall of 3 Chelsea players when they had the ball. This cut off easy passes out and made it very difficult for us to build from the back.
• One result of the pressing from the front was that when we did get the ball forward it was through long or risky passes far more often than normal. As a result we often went forward without the fluidity we've seen, there was less control and more chaos when we had the ball.
• Another result of the pressing was that Chelsea often won the ball back higher up the pitch and with our players forward. This gave them plenty of scope for counter-attacking, something they hit us with many times.
• Plenty will be said about Demichelis playing in midfield, for me he gave a convincing impression of a central defender playing 10 yards too far forward. But it highlights a worrying lack of depth in the squad in central midfield. Behind Yaya and Fernandinho, we only have Garcia and Rodwell. Rodwell is almost permanently injured, and with Garcia and Fernandinho out injured the only options were to move Milner inside or Demichelis.
• The central midfield issue also highlights another worry - where are the academy players? This was something that I noticed at Christmas when, with Zabeleta and Micah Richards out, Clichy played at right-back against Fulham. While Chelsea may not be the game to throw a kid into, Fulham away might be. Where are the academy players to fill in?
• Chelsea deserved to win last night, and it could have been by more as they hit the post 3 times. Despite that, it's not all doom and gloom. We also created chances. On another night we'd have got something from the game.
• City, Chelsea and Arsenal are separated by 2 points. It's a 3 horse race for the title now. With Arsenal facing a very tricky next month, their 2 point lead at this stage is nothing. The title could go to any of us.

ITV's FA Cup 'highlights', or little more than the goals

Last nights FA Cup highlights show on ITV annoyed me. City were first game up yet the highlights were brief. The game of the day had little more than 5 minutes action. ITV again showed how poorly they cover football.

I can understand their (and BT Sports) decision to pick other games for live coverage. Picking FA Cup games s notoriously difficult. The 'magic' of the cup means you're never sure where the story will be. Though the TV companies don't always help themselves by, for example, always picking Man United no matter who they play. But a highlights show should be able to react to the days events and concentrate on the days stories. This is something Match of the Day does every week, showing more of the bigger stories of the day.

But even though ITV put City's game on first they also didn't help themselves by spending almost as long after the game on interviews and so-called analysis. In total they spent 5 minutes and 9 seconds showing action from the game, and 4 minutes and 13 seconds showing people talking about it. The result is that apart from the goals I got no impression of how dominant Watford reportedly were in the first half, of how poor City were in the first nor how good they were in the second half. I only saw the goals and a couple of other chances.

100 up, and counting...

This season is ridiculous. I've never seen a team scoring at this rate for this many games, and it's a joy to watch your own team do it. The numbers are getting silly:

• 103 goals in 34 games, an average of 3.03 per game
• 68 in 17 at home, an average of 4 per game
• 60 in 22 in the league, 2.73 per game
• 18 in 6 Champions League games, 3 per game
• 16 in 4 in the League Cup, 4 per game
• Seven times 5 or more goals have been scored 

Any of those statistics would be impressive at this stage of the season, the Premier League is currently averaging 2.69 goals per game. City are doing better than that on their own! At this rate, City will finish the Premier League season with 104 goals. The record is 103.

Even if you assume City only played the minimum number of games they have remaining this season (i.e. they lose in the next round of each cup competition), then City are currently on course to score around 156 goals this season. I've not found a definitive answer, but a few articles have mentioned that the current record is 147 goals set by Chelsea last season.

The above stats are incredible. City are scoring goals at a record setting pace. But, goals alone don't win trophies. Despite all the recent talk about a potential quadruple, City are still only 2nd in the Premier League and face a difficult last-16 tie with Barcelona in the Champions League. We could easily end the season winning nothing.

Despite that note of caution, reaching (and passing) 100 goals for the season is a good time to pause and acknowledge just what an astonishing display of attacking football we have been privileged to watch so far this season.