Manchester City Women's WSL Debut, or a work in progress

I've just spent the evening watching Manchester City's women's team make their debut in the Women's Super League. First a slight confession. I haven't watched a huge amount of women's football over the years, just a few England games, one GB game at the Olympics and the odd Women's FA Cup Final. Every time I've made a mental note to watch more and not followed up on it. That said, a few observations on tonight's game

• Considering Manchester City were away at last seasons champions, it was a decent performance. Liverpool probably just deserved to win but City gave them a good game, creating a decent number of chances.
• But they do need to learn when to play out from the back, and when just to clear it quickly. In the first half they were very lucky not to give away at least one goal by playing out almost suicidally.
• Toni Duggan looks like a great player. But City need to learn how to use her talent. On the basis of this game she needs to spend more time on the shoulder of the last defender and needs the right service. Given that, there's plenty of goals there.
• For Liverpool, Gemma Davison was the most impressive player. Lots of pace and a good work rate.
• For City Jill Scott, Steph Houghton and Krystle Johnston had a good game, I was surprised to see Krystle substituted.
• The most noticeable downside for me was that it was too obvious who the full time players were. Each team has 5 full time players and while you would expect these to be the best players in terms of skill, it was also noticeable that the full time players were those quickest and with the higher work-rate. This is a direct result of them being able to train full time . Unfortunately, women's football cannot currently support a full time professional league. It is growing (last season there were 4 full time players per club) but there is some way to go.
• Finally, it's good to see BT Sport will be showing regular live games from the WSL,  I've made a mental note to follow it and definitely intend to follow up on that this time.

Cup final 1 of 8 - done

Saturday lunchtime ended up being a comfortable win but didn't feel that way until we had a very large slice (about 5 yards worth) of luck. After that, City were dominant, before that Southampton were the better side, although without creating many chances. A few observations on the game

• Dzeko is scoring regularly but still misses several chances a game. Negredo just can't buy a goal at the minute. The effort is there, but the confidence has gone. He just needs some luck.
• The title could come down to this - can City get a second striker fit and scoring. Aguero is close to fitness and it was good to see Jovetic playing and scoring, but we'll need a few goals from Aguero, Negredo and Jovetic between now and the end of the season.
• Southampton dominated possession in the first half through their passing. At times they were knocking the ball about simply and quickly. The key for this was their movement off the ball. This is a side of the game that doesn't come across well on TV, but is noticeable when at the game, Southampton would almost always have a couple of players free in space which meant there was always an easy pass on. They did this by quickly moving away from a marker and positioning themselves half-way between City players. It's very intelligent and effective when a team like Southampton does this.
• Two things changed the game so that City dominated the second half. The 2 goals before half time (the first of which was one of the more obvious offsides you will see), and the introduction of Javi Garcia. I thought Garcia was very effective, sitting a bit deeper than Fernandinho had been. He broke up Southampton's passing rhythm and helped City get their own rhythm going.
• This looked, on paper, to be our trickiest home game left to play. But we can't get complacent. Every game is now a cup final for us. The first is done, there are still 7 to go.

What has gone wrong at United?

As a City fan there is a temptation to gloat after last nights comprehensive victory over United in the derby. I'm certainly enjoying their struggles this season, but last night it shocked me just how disorganised they now are. Why on earth have things gone this wrong?

Everton under David Moyes were always limited but well organised and hard working. Last night United were all over the place. After around 15 minutes I asked out loud what formation they were playing. I couldn't work it out. Today I've read a few articles which have said they changed formation after 10 minutes, but it wasn't as simple as that. There was a distinct lack of organisation and structure to the team.

To be honest I'm not hoping this gets put right too quickly (or ever), it's just a puzzle that a manager who was previously good at organising his team can now have a team so disorganised.

What to do about a problem called Negredo?

Up to the end of January, Álvaro Negredo looked like the signing of the season. In his first 32 games, he scored 23 goals. But it was more than that, the work rate off the ball and physical presence he provided were exceptional. Negredo was flying, then he injured his shoulder in the League Cup semi final against West Ham. Since then, no goals in 9 games and he looks a shadow of the player he was earlier in the season.

What has gone wrong? The first thing is that we had a number of injuries amongst the forwards. Aguero and Jovetic have also been injured. This, combined with Dzeko's erratic form, means Negredo may been back playing before he had fully recovered from his injury. This would undoubtedly have limited his effectiveness initially. Now, the issue is confidence. In short, Negredo is playing like he's got no confidence.

During the Fulham game I spent a bit of time watching Negredo's runs off the ball. There were a couple of things I noticed that, for me, betrayed his low confidence. Firstly he didn't seem to be attacking the ball, and secondly his runs were often into places the ball was unlikely to go, often away from the ball. For the later there can be a good reason for this, a run away from the ball can drag defenders out of position, creating space for other players. But against Fulham, as the lone striker and with a packed defence, it just meant there was often nobody to play the ball forward to. It's almost as if Negredo doesn't want the ball. This is a sure sign of low confidence, wanting the ball to go elsewhere so you don't make a mistake.

An incident late in the game worried me. Navas came charging forward into space, but Negredo's run didn't help. Instead of trying to get in behind the defence so Navas could slip the ball through for him, or trying to drag a defender away to create more space for Navas to run into, Negredo decided to run back, straight at Navas! Why did he do this? Was he hoping that Navas would run past him and carry on alone?

If this sounds overly critical of Negredo then perhaps I should say that the effort is still there. He is trying and the work rate is good. It's just that the decision making is different due to the low confidence.

So how do you fix this? Ideally with a goal or two, however they come. I thought he'd got the lucky break late in the game against Fulham when Steve Sidwell attempted a suicidal headed back-pass inside the 6 yard box, but he couldn't take advantage. Until he gets a goal though, trust and confidence needs to be shown in him. The question is - how long will this take and, at this stage of the season, can Pellegrini afford to be that patient?

Has this season been a success or failure so far?

In late January, the media was full of talk of City winning a Quadruple, the number of goals they were scoring and how it was one of the best teams to watch in years. Now, there is talk that this season may be a failure and that the win at Hull may have saved the season. This is despite City already having won a trophy this year. While both are typical media over-reactions, there has been a change in the atmosphere around City since the end of January. What has caused this and how successful has Manual Pellegrini's first season actually been so far?

At the end of January, City were flying. In the previous 3 months they'd scored 81 goals in 23 games, and were still in all 4 competitions. Since then, just 10 goals in 9 games have been scored and they have gone out of 2 competitions. The turning point in this is fairly obvious - the game against Chelsea in the league. This defeat knocked us off course. Injuries to strikers hasn't helped but suddenly City stopped scoring and this exposed a defence which has, to put it politely, some issues.

But was the last couple of months that bad? The League Cup was won, Chelsea were defeated in the FA Cup, 7 points out of 9 have been picked up in the league since the Chelsea defeat and there was a creditable performance in defeat to Barcelona. Then there was the FA Cup. Frankly that was an embarrassing disaster. It had been coming though. Chelsea apart, we flirted with it in earlier rounds and didn't learn our lesson.

As things stand, City have won the League Cup and still have their destiny in the league in their own hands. The league is still a 4 horse race and you could make a case for all 4 to win it (Chelsea have points in the bag, City have games in hand, Liverpool still have both City and Chelsea to play at home, Arsenal have City and Chelsea in next two weeks), but for me it's wide open. So is this a successful season or not?

To answer this we need to take a step back and look at everything. Before the start of the season I thought we'd have had a good season if we:

• finished 2nd or better in the Premier League
• won a trophy
• got past the group stage of the Champions League

2 of those have been achieved and the 3rd is a definitely possible. But the 2 that have been achieved could arguably be said to have been only just achieved. Going out at the first knock-out stage in the Champions League having had a relatively easy group is the bare minimum, and the League Cup is the 4th most important trophy we can win.

Would this be enough for the owners? Not on it's own. In the statement released when Mancini was sacked and in other statements last summer, the owners and management talked of other priorities. Khaldoon Al Mubarak talked of the ambition to try and win everything, while Ferran Soriano set a realistic target of 5 trophies in 5 years. While it wasn't clear from Soriano's comments if the League Cup would be included in his target, winning a trophy in the first year is in line with this target. And City certainly tried to win everything, even the FA Cup despite the disaster (City threw everything at Wigan to try and turn that around).

Soriano also mentioned wanting to see the team progress. This is a vague target but on two fronts we can say this has been achieved. There are far fewer off the field incidents this season. The team seems a much more harmonious (or is much better at keeping it inside the dressing room). The style of play has improved. The owners have spoken of wanting to play attractive, attacking football. At least until the end of January this was certainly the case with City playing some of the best football I've ever seen from a City side.

Unfortunately there is one area where little progress has been made. The owners want players to progress from the academy to the first team. Apart from encouraging performances from Marcos Lopes in the League Cup, this just hasn't happened. The most worrying sign for me was the use of Clichy and then Boyata at right back when Zabaleta and Richards were both injured around Christmas. If you can't trust an academy player when you play Crystal Palace at home when can you? While this may not be Pellegrini's fault (if the players aren't good enough, he isn't going to play them), there is a distinct lack of progress on this.

Has this been a successful season? I would say that overall the club has moved in the right direction, even if the League title goes elsewhere. When he talked about the '5 trophies in 5 years' target, Soriano also said that the manager wouldn't be judged on trophies alone. As we know from the last couple of years a lot can happen in a single game that can make a difference between winning a trophy and not. Off and on the field, most things have moved in the right direction. And any season where a trophy is won and you are in contention for the title until very late in the season cannot be considered a failure.

That was a proper cup final

From the sea of red and white shirts on Wembley Way before the game, to the noise they made in the stadium during the game, the Sunderland fans were magnificent yesterday. Their team were very good as well. Neither deserved to be on the losing side, but then sport doesn't do deserving. You can play badly and win, or play well and lose. For Sunderland it was the latter.

City took a while to get going, both on and off the pitch. The Sunderland end was full well before kick-off, the City end filled up closer to kick-off. A consequence of how often we have each visited Wembley recently perhaps. But once the City end filled up, the noise from both ends of the stadium made for a great atmosphere and a real cup final feel.

In the first half, Sunderland were the better side, battling well and taking a (probably) deserved lead. City took a while to get going but when they did, unleashed two of the greatest cup final goals I've ever seen. At the time I thought Toure's was the better goal. But after getting home and watching the replay's I'm starting to think Nasri's may have been better. Either way, both goals would have been worthy of any final.

At 2-1 though, there was always a chance for Sunderland to get back in it. On another day the ball may have bounced more kindly for them and they would have. Then, who knows what would have happened. Overall City were just the better side, but there wasn't much in it. Both teams (and sets of supporters) were part of a proper cup final.

Finally though, I have to mention the only disappointments of the day and they all relate to problems with Wembley itself. There is always the worlds biggest queue on Wembley Way after the game, this is now expected and well managed but doesn't improve. But the queue's in the toilets are even worse. For a stadium which loudly claimed to have more toilets than any other stadium when it opened, I've no idea how they can be so bad.

Wembley also seems to have the worlds loudest PA system. It somehow drowns out 90,000 fans at times. When will they learn that allowing the fans to create the atmosphere is the best way to do it? Not trying to force an atmosphere with ridiculously loud music.

Lastly, have a look at the photo at the top of this blog. Notice all the empty seats in the Club Wembley area? That photo was taken with about 15 minutes of the game to go. This is disgracful. There were several thousand empty seats there which could have been used by fans of the two teams. The FA needs to look at the terms of the Club Wembley seats when they come up for renewal. If they aren't going to use them for a game, they should be made available for others to use.

The goals have dried up - how worrying is this?

From the start of November until the end of January, City scored 81 goals in 23 games. That's just over 3.5 per game! In February, City have scored 3 goals in 5 games, less than a goal a game. The goals have dried up recently, leading to just 2 wins and a draw from the 5 games. How worrying is this? What has caused this? There are several possible reasons.

1. Regression to the mean - for 3 months City scored at a frankly ridiculous rate, at some point this rate was bound to drop. Form fluctuates up and down, and so this could be just a blip. We were above average for 3 months and then below for a month. If this is the case then the goals should return soon.
2. Opponents have worked us out - we're now well into the second half of the season. Other teams have had plenty of time to study how we play, to look at what other teams have done against us that has/hasn't worked, and so to adjust their tactics against us. For example, the game against Arsenal showed what happens when you try and meet fire with fire, but Crystal Palace showed what is possible by being defensive. Arsenal were destroyed, and Palace could easily have got something out of the game - their tactics very nearly worked. If teams are concentrating on stopping us scoring and adapt their tactics, this will make it harder to score. The key to this is that City need to adapt their own tactics. The FA Cup game against Chelsea could be a sign that we are willing to do this.
3. Injuries to key players - it's not a coincidence that our early struggles in defense coincided with a series of injuries at centre back. We've recently been missing some key players (e.g. Aguero, Nasri) who would have given us added firepower. No side, however deep their squad, is as good if multiple key players are out injured. This is especially true if the injuries are concentrated in one position. Early in the season injuries to centre backs meant Javi Garcia played out of position there, recently multiple injuries in midfield meant Demichelis played there. This usually means the team's performance will drop.
4. Loss of form of key players - the early season defensive struggles were, in part, due to Joe Harts poor form. Recently Negredo's form, for example, has been poor. This happens as form can fluctuate and usually a player can be rested and given a bit of time to get his form back. The injury to Aguero, however, has meant this can't happen.

The most likely explanation is a combination of the above. Of the above, 3 and 4 do happen. The problem is that they have both happened in the same area of the team. Usually they will be scattered  throughout the squad and so the depth of the squad can be used to cover for this. Point 1 above should come to an end, the goalscoring should fluctuate back up. The reason to worry would be point 2. If teams are finding a way to stop us then we need to make adjustments of our own. Can we do that? The rest of the season will hinge on how big a factor this is and if we can find an answer.