What to do about a problem called Negredo?

Up to the end of January, Álvaro Negredo looked like the signing of the season. In his first 32 games, he scored 23 goals. But it was more than that, the work rate off the ball and physical presence he provided were exceptional. Negredo was flying, then he injured his shoulder in the League Cup semi final against West Ham. Since then, no goals in 9 games and he looks a shadow of the player he was earlier in the season.

What has gone wrong? The first thing is that we had a number of injuries amongst the forwards. Aguero and Jovetic have also been injured. This, combined with Dzeko's erratic form, means Negredo may been back playing before he had fully recovered from his injury. This would undoubtedly have limited his effectiveness initially. Now, the issue is confidence. In short, Negredo is playing like he's got no confidence.

During the Fulham game I spent a bit of time watching Negredo's runs off the ball. There were a couple of things I noticed that, for me, betrayed his low confidence. Firstly he didn't seem to be attacking the ball, and secondly his runs were often into places the ball was unlikely to go, often away from the ball. For the later there can be a good reason for this, a run away from the ball can drag defenders out of position, creating space for other players. But against Fulham, as the lone striker and with a packed defence, it just meant there was often nobody to play the ball forward to. It's almost as if Negredo doesn't want the ball. This is a sure sign of low confidence, wanting the ball to go elsewhere so you don't make a mistake.

An incident late in the game worried me. Navas came charging forward into space, but Negredo's run didn't help. Instead of trying to get in behind the defence so Navas could slip the ball through for him, or trying to drag a defender away to create more space for Navas to run into, Negredo decided to run back, straight at Navas! Why did he do this? Was he hoping that Navas would run past him and carry on alone?

If this sounds overly critical of Negredo then perhaps I should say that the effort is still there. He is trying and the work rate is good. It's just that the decision making is different due to the low confidence.

So how do you fix this? Ideally with a goal or two, however they come. I thought he'd got the lucky break late in the game against Fulham when Steve Sidwell attempted a suicidal headed back-pass inside the 6 yard box, but he couldn't take advantage. Until he gets a goal though, trust and confidence needs to be shown in him. The question is - how long will this take and, at this stage of the season, can Pellegrini afford to be that patient?