Was Negrado allowed to leave due to FFP?

The departure of Alvaro Negredo on the last day of the transfer window without a replacement arriving has surprised many people. That he was looking to leave seemed to be almost an open secret. Rumours have been circulating for a while that his wife wasn't happy in England and was suffering from homesickness. If true, then the best for all concerned is probably a transfer back to Spain. But why was this done so late and with no replacement arriving? This is unlike the carefully planned moves that have characterised City's transfer business in the last two summers. Is the clue to be found in the FFP punishment City received from UEFA a few months ago?

Two aspects of the FFP punishment have been discussed often over the summer - the squad size restrictions and limit on spending on transfers. A third part of the punishment has rarely been discussed. City's wage bill cannot increase. While I'm not certain of the exact details, such as what the monitoring period is, the club will be aware and will have a number they want the total wages to be below after all the transfer business has been done.

This need to restrict wages throws an interesting light on much of City's summer business. Firstly several high wage earners have left (e.g. Lescott and Barry), and secondly several players who would have been among the highest earners (such as Aguero, Silva and Kompany) have signed new long term deals. Normally this would also mean their wages would have increased but a line from City's statement in response to the FFP punishment suggests an alternative. This said:

It is important to note that additional bonuses for performances can be paid outside this number.

The number referred to is the wage bill. Bonuses do not count towards wages for FFP. So have City reduced their wage bill by renegotiating contracts with reduced basic pay but increased bonuses? I doubt UEFA would allow them to abuse this loophole by doing this significantly, but it does suggest City are making efforts to reduce wages.

If the whole of City's summer transfers and the new contracts is looked at from the point of view of the wage bill, it does look like efforts have been made to comply with the FFP wage restriction. Which brings us back to Negredo. What if, after all the summer activity, they looked at the wage bill and weren't certain of passing the FFP test? Perhaps there was an agreement that he would be allowed to leave if a replacement could be brought in, but they didn't find one. This would explain why nothing happened earlier. Then, at the end, there was a need to trim the wage bill a little bit more and Negredo wants to leave. Was he allowed to leave at the last minute due to FFP?

Is a relatively quiet summer good or bad for City?

At the start of the summer most City fans would have felt that there wasn't much that needed to be done in the transfer window. A new centre back (especially as Joleon Lescott was out of contract and leaving), and some depth added in the centre of midfield were the priorities. Aside from that, there may be a need for new signings but only if they were a replacement and upgrade for someone leaving.

So far the summer has fitted the above. The biggest signing so far is Fernando. This adds strength in the centre of midfield behind (or alongside?) Yaya Toure and Fernandinho. Additionally there is the signing of Bruno Zuculini, a midfielder from River Plate. The latter signing is one I'll confess to knowing little about. At 21 and only costing £1.5million, he may be one for the future. But at that age that should come soon, so I'm a little puzzled by that.

The signing of Bacary Sagna looks like a replacement and upgrade on Micah Richards. Sadly Micah has been injured for most of the last couple of years and has looked a shadow of the player he once was when he has played. This looks a sensible move all round as perhaps a change of club would help Micah re-discover his form of a few years ago. But Micah Richards is still at City. Is the intention still to move him on? Or did the FFP punishment from UEFA and the restrictions on the squad size (and need for homegrown players in the squad) change City's mind about letting him go?

The one signing which is an obvious upgrade is Willy Caballero. With Costel Pantillimon leaving, the probable back-up keeper is much better than before.

But what of players leaving? As the season ended there were two worrying stories that emerged. Firstly there was the ridiculous stories around Yaya Toure. To me, this always looked like an agent stirring things up to try and engineer a better deal or move for the player. Thankfully this appears to be resolved. The other story was that James Milner wanted to leave. Little more has been heard about this which isn't that surprising. Milner always strikes me as someone who will do something in the correct, 'boring' way. If the story is true, he would probably have let the club know as soon as the season was over and then everything would have happened behind closed doors. In this case, it's likely no news will be heard unless there is a transfer. I hope that we keep hearing nothing about this.

Finally, what is left to be done? The obvious one is that so far there has been no central defender coming in. The rumoured signing of Eliaquim Mangala has been just that, rumoured, for months now. If this does go through then on the face of it, City would have done all they 'need' to do. But I do think there is more to be done. There are a number of players in the squad who are perhaps now surplus to requirements. Scott Sinclair and Jack Rodwell are two who spring to mind. In the case of Sinclair, after an underwhelming first season at City he spent all last season on loan at West Brom where he played only 6 games. In Rodwell's case he is now 5th choice in the centre of midfield. Would it be a good move to sell both of these?

So has this been good or bad for City? If, in what is left of the transfer window, a quality centre back arrives and a couple of fringe players leave (either permanently or on long term loans) then I would argue it will have been good. If no centre back arrives then I would be a little worried. There are some out there arguing that City are repeating mistakes made two years ago. True there has not yet been a world class signing but this misses the point. Two years ago City were 2 1/2 years into Mancini's reign as manager. This side is a year into Pellegrini's reign and is still developing. At times last year this was obvious. Two years ago many of the signings came right at the end of the transfer window, too late to be part of pre-season and it felt like they were not first choices. This year City have been active early and appear to have done a lot of their business already. This is a sign that targets have been identified and signed, unlike 2 years ago. If the remaining business is done in the same low-key manner, this will not be a sign of mistakes, it will be a sign of a club knowing what they want and getting it done.

Transfer Window - how did it go?

Now the transfer window has slammed shut (as sky put it), how did we do? The basic changes to the squad are:

• Fernandinho replaces Gareth Barry
• Jesus Navas replaces Scott Sinclair
• Alvaro Negredo replaces Carlos Tevez
• Stevan Jovetic replaces Mario Balotelli
• Martin Demichelis replaces Kolo Toure
• Maicon was sold but not replaced

In addition, Wayne Bridge, Roque Santa Cruz and a number of youth team players have left on loan or have been released. Of the above, I'd argue Fernandinho and Navas are definite improvements. Negrado and Jovetic are different types of players to Tevez and Balotelli so it remains to be seen if that's an improvement. Demichelis should provide at least as reliable back up cover at centre back as Kolo Toure, and Maicon was probably going to be third choice right back and so we can probably cope without replacing him.

The biggest disappointment for me was the sale of Denis Saurez. Although he hadn't made the first team breakthrough yet he was a very promising talent and Barcelona clearly see something there worth investing in. The owners stated desire to see more academy players making the first team has seen a set-back with this.

Although we have a net spend of around £80 million, there will be a benefit from a reduction in the wage bill. Several high wage earners were moved on and either not replaced (e.g. Bridge and Santa Cruz) or replaced with lower wage earners (e.g. Tevez was probably on more than Negredo and Jovetic combined). This should help with FFP compliance.

Overall I think we've had a successful transfer window. Although there was no major name signed, all the new faces look to be good signings and the squad has a fresher, improved look.

The Transfer Window so far....

Now we are almost half-way through the (official) transfer window and City have made several signings, it seems a good time to assess the changes made. There is a good assessment here, although it does lose some credibility by suggesting that Kolorov would start at right back if the season started today. Here are my thoughts.

Firstly, there have been the following transfers out

• Wayne Bridge, Kolo Toure, Carlos Tevez, Roque Santa Cruz, Maicon

Along with the release or sale of some academy players who hadn't made the first team (e.g. Ryan McGivern, Jeremy Helan), the departures of Wayne Bridge and Roque Santa Cruz are not significant from a first team point of view. Both were clearly not wanted having not played a league game for City in more than two years, The main impact of their departure is to reduce the wage bill.

Kolo Toure's departure may be in a similar category. It is likely that he was earning large wages and as fourth choice centre back there is probably better value to be gained from replacing him.

The only two players sold so far are Maicon and Tevez. Maicon was always a puzzling signing. I was never sure why we'd signed another right-back when we already had two excellent ones in Micah Richards and Pablo Zabeleta. He was possibly bought for Mancini with a view to using him as a wing-back in the back-3 system that was tried early last season. A combination of the excellent form of Zabeleta, injuries and the fact that the back-3 was largely unsuccessful, meant Maicon didn't have a successful season and so this sale makes sense.

The sale of Carlos Tevez makes sense from a financial perspective, although it would have been good to keep him in the team as he's a genuinely world-class player. Unfortunately in football today, once a player enters the final year of their contract their value diminishes rapidly. Most clubs don't let players enter the final year of their contract without either trying to negotiate a new contract or attempting to sell the player. Given the high wages Tevez was on, selling him was a sensible move financially.

The net result of the above is that we have reduced the wage bill significantly, but need to replace a central defender and a striker (I don't believe Maicon needs replacing as we have two right backs in the squad already). Added to the above should probably be Mario Ballotelli. While he was sold in January, he wasn't replaced. So if we were to keep a similar balance to the squad we should be looking for a central defender and two strikers.

The transfers in so far are

• Jesus Navas, Fernandinho, Stefan Jovetic, Alvaro Negredo

All of the above are excellent players, and all are internationals. Individually they look good signings. But I'm more interested in how they fit into the first team squad. Firstly, we have signed two strikers, a winger and a midfielder. Given the needs based on who was sold, we still need a central defender and didn't need the winger or midfielder. However, that ignores a couple of basic questions: what were the existing weaknesses in the squad, and how does the squad need to evolve in order to play the tactics the new manager will use?

One of the most glaring weaknesses in the team last season was a lack of width. The nominal wide players such as Silva and Nasri like to drift inside and get involved in central areas. Overlapping full-backs were supposed to provide some width, but the majority of the team was very narrow. During the Championship winning 2011-12 season, Adam Johnson often came off the bench to change things and provide width. Last season he was replaced with Scott Sinclair, but he had a poor season making little impact. The signing of Jesus Navas, a winger with genuine pace, should address this weakness.

Fernandinho may address another weakness in the squad, the lack of cover for Yaya Toure. The other midfielders are just not the same type of player as Yaya and we have missed him when he's been absent. But I'm not sure we are wise paying £30million for a back-up midfielder. This transfer, and the absence of a new centre back, may be a clue as to how the team will evolve tactically.

It has been widely rumoured that the director of football, Txiki Begiristan, wishes to implement a 4-3-3 system similar to that used when he was at Barcelona. If this were the case, then by playing with 3 midfielders instead of 2 (in the 4-2-3-1 system used last season) means more players are needed in this area. However, another feature of the Barcelona team in recent years has been defensive midfielders playing as a ball-playing centre back. This has usually been Mascherano, although others have played there as well. Could Javier Garcia starting the first pre-season friendly at centre-back be a sign of this? If so, then it wasn't a centre back that was needed to replace Kolo Toure, it was a midfielder.

Of course, all the above could be missing key information, and ignores any academy players who may join the squad. There could well be further transfers in and out. Manuel Pellegrini hasn't been at the club long and so may want to make further changes when he has assessed the squad. But if this turns out to be all the transfers we do then it looks to have been a good transfer window. Players leaving have been replaced, obvious weaknesses in the squad have been addressed and it is likely the overall wage bill will have been reduced as well.