A few thoughts and predictions on the new season

The new season starts this weekend. This is always the time for maximum optimism, though as a City fan I still fear the worst. So maybe it's time to take a step back and look at what would be realistically a good season.

Before last season I felt we'd have had a successful season if we:

• finished 2nd or better in the Premier League
• won a trophy
• got past the group stage of the Champions League

Of those 3, 1 was achieved (2nd in the league), 1 was close (losing the FA Cup Final) and not getting past the group stage of the Champions League could be excused as the draw put us in the group of death. On that basis, an argument could be made that last season was okay. And yet it all felt so disappointing. The team seemed to go backward.

So to this season, and the most important thing for me is a feeling that the team is moving forwards. If we achieve that and finish in the top 3 of the League than that would be a satisfactory season. For a successful season, if the team feels like it's moved forward and we achieve at least 2 of the above criteria from last season then I will be happy.

Finally to put my neck on the line a few predictions:

In the Premier League, the top 2 will be City and Chelsea (though I'm not sure of the order), United will be 3rd, and Spurs 4th. Hull, Palace and Sunderland will be relegated. In the Champions League, City will get to the Quarter Finals, but will be out early in both cups. One of the cups will be won by Chelsea.

The Transfer Window so far....

Now we are almost half-way through the (official) transfer window and City have made several signings, it seems a good time to assess the changes made. There is a good assessment here, although it does lose some credibility by suggesting that Kolorov would start at right back if the season started today. Here are my thoughts.

Firstly, there have been the following transfers out

• Wayne Bridge, Kolo Toure, Carlos Tevez, Roque Santa Cruz, Maicon

Along with the release or sale of some academy players who hadn't made the first team (e.g. Ryan McGivern, Jeremy Helan), the departures of Wayne Bridge and Roque Santa Cruz are not significant from a first team point of view. Both were clearly not wanted having not played a league game for City in more than two years, The main impact of their departure is to reduce the wage bill.

Kolo Toure's departure may be in a similar category. It is likely that he was earning large wages and as fourth choice centre back there is probably better value to be gained from replacing him.

The only two players sold so far are Maicon and Tevez. Maicon was always a puzzling signing. I was never sure why we'd signed another right-back when we already had two excellent ones in Micah Richards and Pablo Zabeleta. He was possibly bought for Mancini with a view to using him as a wing-back in the back-3 system that was tried early last season. A combination of the excellent form of Zabeleta, injuries and the fact that the back-3 was largely unsuccessful, meant Maicon didn't have a successful season and so this sale makes sense.

The sale of Carlos Tevez makes sense from a financial perspective, although it would have been good to keep him in the team as he's a genuinely world-class player. Unfortunately in football today, once a player enters the final year of their contract their value diminishes rapidly. Most clubs don't let players enter the final year of their contract without either trying to negotiate a new contract or attempting to sell the player. Given the high wages Tevez was on, selling him was a sensible move financially.

The net result of the above is that we have reduced the wage bill significantly, but need to replace a central defender and a striker (I don't believe Maicon needs replacing as we have two right backs in the squad already). Added to the above should probably be Mario Ballotelli. While he was sold in January, he wasn't replaced. So if we were to keep a similar balance to the squad we should be looking for a central defender and two strikers.

The transfers in so far are

• Jesus Navas, Fernandinho, Stefan Jovetic, Alvaro Negredo

All of the above are excellent players, and all are internationals. Individually they look good signings. But I'm more interested in how they fit into the first team squad. Firstly, we have signed two strikers, a winger and a midfielder. Given the needs based on who was sold, we still need a central defender and didn't need the winger or midfielder. However, that ignores a couple of basic questions: what were the existing weaknesses in the squad, and how does the squad need to evolve in order to play the tactics the new manager will use?

One of the most glaring weaknesses in the team last season was a lack of width. The nominal wide players such as Silva and Nasri like to drift inside and get involved in central areas. Overlapping full-backs were supposed to provide some width, but the majority of the team was very narrow. During the Championship winning 2011-12 season, Adam Johnson often came off the bench to change things and provide width. Last season he was replaced with Scott Sinclair, but he had a poor season making little impact. The signing of Jesus Navas, a winger with genuine pace, should address this weakness.

Fernandinho may address another weakness in the squad, the lack of cover for Yaya Toure. The other midfielders are just not the same type of player as Yaya and we have missed him when he's been absent. But I'm not sure we are wise paying £30million for a back-up midfielder. This transfer, and the absence of a new centre back, may be a clue as to how the team will evolve tactically.

It has been widely rumoured that the director of football, Txiki Begiristan, wishes to implement a 4-3-3 system similar to that used when he was at Barcelona. If this were the case, then by playing with 3 midfielders instead of 2 (in the 4-2-3-1 system used last season) means more players are needed in this area. However, another feature of the Barcelona team in recent years has been defensive midfielders playing as a ball-playing centre back. This has usually been Mascherano, although others have played there as well. Could Javier Garcia starting the first pre-season friendly at centre-back be a sign of this? If so, then it wasn't a centre back that was needed to replace Kolo Toure, it was a midfielder.

Of course, all the above could be missing key information, and ignores any academy players who may join the squad. There could well be further transfers in and out. Manuel Pellegrini hasn't been at the club long and so may want to make further changes when he has assessed the squad. But if this turns out to be all the transfers we do then it looks to have been a good transfer window. Players leaving have been replaced, obvious weaknesses in the squad have been addressed and it is likely the overall wage bill will have been reduced as well.

The Fixture List is Out!

Next season's Premier League fixture list is now out, and the shock is we play everyone twice! Home and away! More seriously, here are a few observations:

• Two of the newly promoted sides in the first 3 games could be tricky. The promoted teams are often more dangerous early in the season while confidence is still high and before the reality of the struggle ahead sets in. So this could be a tricky time to play them.
• The games against United and Chelsea are relatively early in the season. I expect these two, and ourselves, to be the main title challengers but the fact the games are early means they are unlikely to be decisive.
• Everton away as the second to last game. Lets hope we don't need a result as we have a shocking record there.
• The fixture list looks fairly balanced. There's no obvious run of tricky games. The worst is playing Spurs away followed 3 days later by Chelsea at home at the end on January and beginning of February.
• Swansea away on New Year's Day - good luck to those travelling with the hangover.

Welcome the Manchester City, Manuel Pellegrini

No sooner had I asked where the new manager was than he was announced. By a coincidence, his former club Malaga appointed a new manager today. Or maybe it wasn't a coincidence if some of the rumours circulating online are to be believed.

If all the many profiles of Pellegrini that have been published over the last few weeks are to be believed, then this is an excellent appointment. His record is also excellent, getting the best out of whatever resources he has. The only thing lacking is trophies, but his teams always seem to over-achieve.

Hopefully this does turn out to be the excellent appointment it appears. Welcome to Manchester.

Where is the new manager?

This is starting to get a little worrying. Where is the new manager for Manchester City? It is now:

• 31 days since Roberto Mancini was sacked
• 25 days since the end of the season
• 12 days since the end of the La Liga season

and still now manager has been appointed. If all the rumours are true, a deal with Manuel Pelligrini was agreed some time ago. If true, then surely the appointment should have been finalised by now? The longer this drags on the more likely something will stop him being appointed. I've already seen one report mention a 'minor technicality' holding things up. Is this code for something else?

I can remember a previous occasion when a chairman thought he had his man but it dragged on, then fell through. The chairman? Francis Lee. Who did he think had agreed to be manager? Brian Kidd. Who did we end up with? Alan Ball. I hope history isn't repeating itself.

Why Falcao was never moving to the Premier League

In an excellent article by Michael Berlin on Grantland, there is a good description of the strange background to Falcao's move to Monaco. It is essentially a story about the third-party ownership of players and how it impacts the players career. For me a small detail within the story stood out. In a section describing how the club Falcao was transferred to was chosen is the following:

"There are only a few potential buyers ....... Manchester City, Chelsea, and even United are out because ....... the Premier League doesn't allow for the transfer of third-party owned players."

While playing for Atlético Madrid, Falcao was part owned by the club, and part owned by a company called Doyen Sports. Under Premier League rules, if Falcao was to move to a club in the Premier League then the club would have to fully own him. Part ownership, with the rest owned by a third party, is banned.

I'm not going to go into the details of why it's banned here (the article covers many of the issues) but the press have been covering rumours of Falcao being signed by a Premier League club for months (see here and here for example) without ever once mentioning the fact he was part-owned by a third party, as far as I can recall.

This is a huge piece of information to leave out of the story as it has a huge impact on any potential transfer. The third-party interest in the player is there to make money. As the article explains in more detail, young players are funded early in their career as an investment and the third-party then looks to make money over the course of the career as the player becomes more successful. One way this happens is through lucrative transfers.

If the player was to move to a Premier League club then the third-party would have to sell their stake in the player. Doing so, they would be giving up all future returns on their investment. Even if they were willing to do so, the least they would do is demand a much higher transfer fee from a Premier League club than from a club that allowed them to retain their involvement. This would be to compensate them for future earnings they would be giving up.

The effect of this is to make players who have third-party involvement either off-limits, or considerably more expensive for Premier League clubs. Yet from the press reports over the last few months you would not have guessed that Falcao was subject to this restriction and given how common the practise is in certain parts of the world, gives me another reason to doubt the accuracy of transfer rumours reported in the press.

Some thoughts on the first signing of the summer

According to several reports (such as here and here), Manchester City's first signing of the summer will be Jesús Navas for £17 million plus add-ons from Sevilla. On the face of it signing a pacy winger who has 23 caps for Spain is a good move. Last season City were very narrow, with the width provided by full-backs pushing forward. The only option to change this was Scott Sinclair, who hardly played and barely made an impact when he did.

It's also a good sign that the transfer business is starting early. Last summer City didn't get much done in the transfer window until vary late. When they did make signings it gave the impression that a lot of second choices were being picked up to get something done. This impression was backed up by the fact that of the players signed last summer, only Matija Nastasić could claim to be a first team regular. It was also frequently blamed by Roberto Mancini for the relatively poor season.

With any transfer there are risks, but this one does come with a big risk. Navas has a history of problems with homesickness (see this report for example). While there are reports this has been overcome, citing his recent involvement in Spain's successful World Cup and Euro 2012, a trip for a few weeks is very different from living permanently in another country. City do in depth research on all signings and will no doubt have plans in place to help him settle in but it does remain a significant risk.

Overall this looks a good signing, although one with a significant risk.