Champions League draw thoughts

That's much better than last year. And the year before. That was my initial reaction after the draw but its a dangerous one. Bayern Munich are obviously the big name in the group but the trips to Moscow and the Czech Republic won't be easy. The Moscow one especially partly due to the distance, there could well be a domestic hangover from that which will need managing carefully especially as it's Chelsea away afterwards.

But it's a group we should be capable of getting through if we perform to our ability.

City v Cardiff - some thougts

A tough loss but given how well Cardiff played, not that unexpected. Before the season started I suspected playing a promoted side so early in the season was dangerous and so it proved. At half time I tweeted:

There's a big team going to lose at Cardiff this season. Hope it's not us today #mcfc
— David Lamb (@dlamb75) August 25, 2013

Sadly I was right. Cardiff is going to be a tough place to visit.

A few observations on how City played:

• Garcia isn't good enough at centre back. Sadly with Kompany injured, and Nastasic not fully fit we were down to only one fit centre back. Garcia did play there in pre-season but he lacks pace and doesn't have the experience or instincts needed to compensate for this.
• We've switched from Zonal to Man marking at corners. Is it possible that the two goals conceded from corners are due to the players still getting used to this? On Sky on Monday night, Jamie Carragher made the excellent point that had those goals been conceded when we were using zonal marking, the system would have been blamed. As it was man-marking, Hart and Zabaleta were blamed. Cardiff's delivery at the corners was superb though, so it's possible neither system would have worked.
• At times the game was a return to many games over the last couple of years. Cardiff retreated into the final third and got 10 men behind the ball. The quick passing and movement we showed against Newcastle were less effective here and its in games like this were we will need to show a lot more patience.
• We showed signs of a weakness from last season - being too narrow. Navas should be an important option in games like this but he drifted inside too much.
• Cardiff did take every opportunity to attack though. This is not something most teams do when they sit back and defend against us.

This Season's Chant?

Every season there seems to emerge a new chant or celebration. 3 seasons ago it was the Poznan, 2 seasons ago the Balotelli song, and last season the Yaya/Kolo song. Is this this seasons?

City 4 Newcastle 0 - a few thoughts

Well that was a good start wasn't it? Yes it's just one game, but City looked impressive last night and there are already noticeable differences in the style of play. Here are a few observations on last night’s game:

• City moved the ball much quicker. There was a 'directness' about the ball movement. Not directness in the style of the long-ball game. More a sense of move the ball quickly forward through quick sharp and short passing. The long, slow patient build-up play that characterised City under Mancini looks to have been replaced by something much more aggressive.
• Off the ball there was more aggression when it came to pressing. There was almost a Barcelona style of aggression to it at times.
• Early in the game I felt this meant we weren't controlling possession as much as we used to. This is reflected in stats showing we only had 55% possession, despite Newcastle going into damage limitation mode and sitting back for the second half. This is probably a result of the more aggressive, quicker passing.
• If we will allow the opposition more possession this season, then the defence is going to come under more pressure. There was little to learn from this game about how the defence will be organised under Pellegrini as Newcastle offered little attacking threat. In fact, at half time I realised I wasn't even sure if we were still using zonal marking at corners or not. Even now I'm not sure.
• Sky's commentators tried to pin down City as playing a 4-4-2 formation. This was a very simplistic view of the formation. The fluidity of the front 6 was such that the shape of the team was constantly changing. There's an excellent analysis of a key feature that makes this fluidity work by Michael Cox at the Guardian.

We will have much bigger tests, but this is a promising start. One word I've used frequently above is aggressive. There was a general aggression about City's attacking play, both with and without the ball. For me this is a welcome development although it remains to be seen what the implications are defensively from this.

A few thoughts and predictions on the new season

The new season starts this weekend. This is always the time for maximum optimism, though as a City fan I still fear the worst. So maybe it's time to take a step back and look at what would be realistically a good season.

Before last season I felt we'd have had a successful season if we:

• finished 2nd or better in the Premier League
• won a trophy
• got past the group stage of the Champions League

Of those 3, 1 was achieved (2nd in the league), 1 was close (losing the FA Cup Final) and not getting past the group stage of the Champions League could be excused as the draw put us in the group of death. On that basis, an argument could be made that last season was okay. And yet it all felt so disappointing. The team seemed to go backward.

So to this season, and the most important thing for me is a feeling that the team is moving forwards. If we achieve that and finish in the top 3 of the League than that would be a satisfactory season. For a successful season, if the team feels like it's moved forward and we achieve at least 2 of the above criteria from last season then I will be happy.

Finally to put my neck on the line a few predictions:

In the Premier League, the top 2 will be City and Chelsea (though I'm not sure of the order), United will be 3rd, and Spurs 4th. Hull, Palace and Sunderland will be relegated. In the Champions League, City will get to the Quarter Finals, but will be out early in both cups. One of the cups will be won by Chelsea.

The Transfer Window so far....

Now we are almost half-way through the (official) transfer window and City have made several signings, it seems a good time to assess the changes made. There is a good assessment here, although it does lose some credibility by suggesting that Kolorov would start at right back if the season started today. Here are my thoughts.

Firstly, there have been the following transfers out

• Wayne Bridge, Kolo Toure, Carlos Tevez, Roque Santa Cruz, Maicon

Along with the release or sale of some academy players who hadn't made the first team (e.g. Ryan McGivern, Jeremy Helan), the departures of Wayne Bridge and Roque Santa Cruz are not significant from a first team point of view. Both were clearly not wanted having not played a league game for City in more than two years, The main impact of their departure is to reduce the wage bill.

Kolo Toure's departure may be in a similar category. It is likely that he was earning large wages and as fourth choice centre back there is probably better value to be gained from replacing him.

The only two players sold so far are Maicon and Tevez. Maicon was always a puzzling signing. I was never sure why we'd signed another right-back when we already had two excellent ones in Micah Richards and Pablo Zabeleta. He was possibly bought for Mancini with a view to using him as a wing-back in the back-3 system that was tried early last season. A combination of the excellent form of Zabeleta, injuries and the fact that the back-3 was largely unsuccessful, meant Maicon didn't have a successful season and so this sale makes sense.

The sale of Carlos Tevez makes sense from a financial perspective, although it would have been good to keep him in the team as he's a genuinely world-class player. Unfortunately in football today, once a player enters the final year of their contract their value diminishes rapidly. Most clubs don't let players enter the final year of their contract without either trying to negotiate a new contract or attempting to sell the player. Given the high wages Tevez was on, selling him was a sensible move financially.

The net result of the above is that we have reduced the wage bill significantly, but need to replace a central defender and a striker (I don't believe Maicon needs replacing as we have two right backs in the squad already). Added to the above should probably be Mario Ballotelli. While he was sold in January, he wasn't replaced. So if we were to keep a similar balance to the squad we should be looking for a central defender and two strikers.

The transfers in so far are

• Jesus Navas, Fernandinho, Stefan Jovetic, Alvaro Negredo

All of the above are excellent players, and all are internationals. Individually they look good signings. But I'm more interested in how they fit into the first team squad. Firstly, we have signed two strikers, a winger and a midfielder. Given the needs based on who was sold, we still need a central defender and didn't need the winger or midfielder. However, that ignores a couple of basic questions: what were the existing weaknesses in the squad, and how does the squad need to evolve in order to play the tactics the new manager will use?

One of the most glaring weaknesses in the team last season was a lack of width. The nominal wide players such as Silva and Nasri like to drift inside and get involved in central areas. Overlapping full-backs were supposed to provide some width, but the majority of the team was very narrow. During the Championship winning 2011-12 season, Adam Johnson often came off the bench to change things and provide width. Last season he was replaced with Scott Sinclair, but he had a poor season making little impact. The signing of Jesus Navas, a winger with genuine pace, should address this weakness.

Fernandinho may address another weakness in the squad, the lack of cover for Yaya Toure. The other midfielders are just not the same type of player as Yaya and we have missed him when he's been absent. But I'm not sure we are wise paying £30million for a back-up midfielder. This transfer, and the absence of a new centre back, may be a clue as to how the team will evolve tactically.

It has been widely rumoured that the director of football, Txiki Begiristan, wishes to implement a 4-3-3 system similar to that used when he was at Barcelona. If this were the case, then by playing with 3 midfielders instead of 2 (in the 4-2-3-1 system used last season) means more players are needed in this area. However, another feature of the Barcelona team in recent years has been defensive midfielders playing as a ball-playing centre back. This has usually been Mascherano, although others have played there as well. Could Javier Garcia starting the first pre-season friendly at centre-back be a sign of this? If so, then it wasn't a centre back that was needed to replace Kolo Toure, it was a midfielder.

Of course, all the above could be missing key information, and ignores any academy players who may join the squad. There could well be further transfers in and out. Manuel Pellegrini hasn't been at the club long and so may want to make further changes when he has assessed the squad. But if this turns out to be all the transfers we do then it looks to have been a good transfer window. Players leaving have been replaced, obvious weaknesses in the squad have been addressed and it is likely the overall wage bill will have been reduced as well.

The Fixture List is Out!

Next season's Premier League fixture list is now out, and the shock is we play everyone twice! Home and away! More seriously, here are a few observations:

• Two of the newly promoted sides in the first 3 games could be tricky. The promoted teams are often more dangerous early in the season while confidence is still high and before the reality of the struggle ahead sets in. So this could be a tricky time to play them.
• The games against United and Chelsea are relatively early in the season. I expect these two, and ourselves, to be the main title challengers but the fact the games are early means they are unlikely to be decisive.
• Everton away as the second to last game. Lets hope we don't need a result as we have a shocking record there.
• The fixture list looks fairly balanced. There's no obvious run of tricky games. The worst is playing Spurs away followed 3 days later by Chelsea at home at the end on January and beginning of February.
• Swansea away on New Year's Day - good luck to those travelling with the hangover.